Agricultural expansion is a key driver of global biodiversity loss and deforestation. While reducing agriculture’s environmental impact is essential to limiting biodiversity decline, human population growth and growing prosperity drive further agricultural expansion.
Raising productivity on existing farmland through new crop technologies (NCTs), including genetically modified (GM) crops or neonicotinoid treated seeds, has been proposed as a potential solution to agricultural expansion.
Although NCTs could reduce agricultural expansion, their impact on biodiversity within the agricultural landscape, such as pollinators, is largely unclear. An acceleration of pollinator loss could partially offset the direct benefits of NTCs. Despite the uncertainty about the biodiversity impact of NCTs, they are being rapidly adopted across the globe.
We are using newly available datasets on NCT approval and adoption, georeferenced pollinator observations, and new land cover data to quantify the impact of NCTs on:
- Local and global agricultural expansion
- Agricultural intensification including the spread of monocultures and agrochemicals and
- Pollinator loss within the agricultural landscape
The research program combines insights from economics, ecology and statistics in a rigorous theoretical and empirical framework.
Objectives
Local and global agricultural expansion
One frequently touted benefit of NCTs is that they increase productivity and reduce the economic incentives for agricultural expansion. Although this relationship is widely assumed, it is difficult to quantify because the adoption of NCTs can increase agricultural expansion locally while reducing agricultural expansion elsewhere.
Here, we propose to develop an estimation framework based on the recent economics of trade literature to estimate the local and global impacts of GM crop adoption on agricultural expansion and deforestation based on data on GM crop approval and adoption as well as high-resolution land cover data.
Agricultural intensification including the spread of monocultures and agrochemicals
Local crop diversity provides key ecosystem services for agricultural production. However, large crop monocultures are increasingly widespread. GM crops may encourage monocultures by increasing the private benefits from agricultural specialization.
Here, we propose to estimate the causal impact of GM crop adoption on crop diversity and pesticide use in the United States. We will combine GM crop adoption rates with high-resolution crop and pesticide data to estimate the local impact of GM crop adoption on agricultural intensification.
Pollinator loss within the agricultural landscape
The adoption of NCTs can affect biodiversity in agricultural landscapes either directly, or indirectly, through changes in pesticide use, habitat loss and lower crop diversity. In addition to its ecosystem impacts, biodiversity loss has economic consequences for crops that rely on biodiversity for yield, such as in pollinator-dependent crops.
In this theme, we will use an existing pollinator database, along with species occupancy models, to quantify the impact of NCTs on changes in the local pollinator diversity. We will then use the predicted variation in pollinator diversity to estimate the economic consequences of NCTs for pollinator-dependent crop production. Quantifying the environmental consequences of NCTs is complicated by the necessity to collaborate across disciplines.
The proposed research program combines the expertise of ecologists and economists to create a balanced and comprehensive assessment of the biodiversity impacts of NCTs. The research will inform policymakers, scientists and the public about the total benefits of NCTs and will further interdisciplinary research and education.
Resources
Environmental impacts of genetically modified crops, Frederik Noack, Dennis Engist, Josephine Gantois , Vasundhara Gaur, Batoule F. Hyjazie, Ashley Larsen, Leithen K. M’Gonigle, Anouch Missirian , Matin Qaim , Risa D. Sargent , Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, and Claire Kremen, Science, Science, 2024.
The impact of genetically modified crops on bird diversity, Dennis Engist, Laura Melissa Guzman, Ashley Larsen, Frederik Noack, Nature Sustainability, 2024.
Research Team
Assistant Prof. Joséphine Gantois
Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, Land and Food Systems
Research Team: Prof Frederik Noack, Prof Risa Sargent, Prof Claire Kremen, Prof Josephine Gantois, Prof Juliet Lu, Dennis Engist (PhD candidate), Batoule Hyjazie (PhD student), Trevor Church (MSc student)
Academic Partners: Prof Matin Qaim (U Bonn), Prof Anouch Missirian (Toulouse School of Economics), Prof Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues (U Toronto), Prof Ashley Larsen (UC Santa Barbara), Prof Leithen M’Gonigle (Simon Fraser U), Vasundhara Gaur (NYU Economic Fellow)
Funding Partners: Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC)